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石油季刊
2025


編者的話
ISSN 1022-9671
石油季刊 第61卷 第3期
01
川普新政府油氣與新能源的政策轉向與衝擊
林茂文(Dr. Maw-Wen Lin)
  美國當前的能源政策,一面是對綠色能源的補貼急踩煞車,另一面則是對化石燃料的綠燈全開,然而市場的回應卻並未順著政治邏輯前行,而是選擇保守與避險的策略,展現出一種結構性矛盾。這不僅凸顯能源政策的僅穩定性,也說明企業在因應僅確定性的時代選擇「機會成本低、資金回收快」的經營路線這對投資人而言,這場能源兩極化發展揭示著,政策風險將成為未來能源的投資方向,且對能源結構走勢再添變數。
  本研究首先闡述川普能源新政策的核心是能源主導和傳統能源優先,目標是降低能源價格、增加美國的能源產量和出口,並減少對國外能源的依賴。其次,探討川普新政府的能源政策規劃與全球佈局,以及川普新政府對油氣與新能源政策。接著,研析川普對等關税對能源產業的影響,特別是阿拉斯加液化天然氣的投資與開發。最後,研析亞洲多國以能源採購為外交工具的現況及未來發展。此外,臺灣的能源自給率非常低,超過九成的能源都仰賴進口,這使得臺灣的能源安全面臨一定的挑戰。為了因應這種情況,臺灣應積極推動能源轉型,包括增加再生能源的占比、新式核能技術的可行性等;此外,由於天然氣是橋著能源,目前正研擬從阿拉斯加進口液化天然氣之因應措施,以確保天然氣供應穩定。總之,政府應全面規劃能源多元韌性與穩定性,有效運用各類能源優勢,積極增加能源自主性與確保能源多元性。
  Current US energy policy exhibits a structural contradiction: on the one hand, subsidies for green energy are being slammed on the brakes, while on the other, fossil fuels are being given the all-clear. However, the market's response has not followed political logic, but rather a conservative and risk-averse approach. This not only highlights the instability of energy policy but also suggests that businesses, in an era of uncertainty, are choosing a strategy that prioritizes low opportunity costs and rapid returns. For investors, this energy polarization means that policy risk will become a core variable in future energy investments, rather than just a background distraction.
  This study first explains that the core of Trump's new energy policy is energy independence and prioritizing traditional energy sources, with the goal of lowering energy prices, increasing US energy production and exports, and reducing dependence on foreign energy. Secondly, it explores the Trump administration's energy policy planning and global layout, as well as its policies on oil, gas, and renewable energy. Next, it examines the impact of Trump's reciprocal tariffs on the energy industry, particularly investment in Alaska LNG development. Finally, it examines the current status and future development of energy procurement as a diplomatic tool used by various Asian countries. Furthermore, Taiwan's energy self-sufficiency rate is very low, with over 90% of its energy demand reliant on imports. This poses certain challenges to Taiwan's energy security. To address this situation, Taiwan is actively promoting energy transformation, including increasing the proportion of renewable energy and exploring the feasibility of new nuclear technologies. Natural gas will be a bridge energy source in the future, and measures are being considered to import LNG from Alaska to ensure a stable natural gas supply. In short, the government should comprehensively plan for energy diversity, resilience, and stability, effectively leveraging the advantages of various energy sources to actively increase energy independence and ensure energy diversity.

02
臺灣增強型地熱系統開發之應用與展望
陳思婷(Szu-Ting Chen)陳炳誠(Bing-Cheng Chen)蔡富勝(Fu-Sheng Tsai, Remy)杜開正(Kai-Cheng Tu)黃姝琳(Su-Lin Huang)
  臺灣擁有豐富且具深層潛能的地熱資源,是推動綠色能源轉型與低碳發展的重要契機。增強型地熱系統(Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS)為突破傳統地熱限制、有效開發低滲透率地熱資源的關鍵技術,為台灣深層地熱注入新動能。台灣中油積極推動深層EGS,透過提升儲集層滲透與人工裂縫創造熱能通道,致力引進國際先進技術,展現能源轉型中的關鍵角色。
  宜蘭員山1號井作為重要示範井,累積關鍵地質與工程資料,並在深層地熱鑽井技術上取得初步突破,為未來大規模開發奠定基礎。本文回顧國際代表性EGS案例,包括法國Soultz、德國Landau 與Insheim、美國Utah FORGE、Project Red 與Cape Station,汲取先進經驗並融合臺灣本土優勢,推動深層地熱開發。
  未來隨政策支持與技術成熟,EGS具成為臺灣基載再生能源潛力。台灣中油將持續深化技術研發與示範,致力構建兼具經濟效益與環境永續的深層地熱產業鏈,推動能源轉型與環境保護。強化技術整合、多方協作與社會溝道,是實能EGS商業化的關鍵,為台灣打造穩定、綠色且永續的能源未來。
  Taiwan possesses abundant geothermal resources with significant deep reservoir potential, presenting a critical opportunity to advance green energy transition and low-carbon development. Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) represent a key technology to overcome the limitations of conventional geothermal resources by enabling efficient development of low-permeability geothermal reservoirs, thereby injecting new momentum into Taiwan’s deep geothermal sector. CPC Corporation Taiwan is actively promoting deep EGS technologies by enhancing reservoir permeability and creating artificial fracture networks to facilitate heat extraction, while striving to incorporate advanced international technologies, underscoring its pivotal role in the energy transition.
  The YS-1 in Yilan serves as an important demonstration well, having accumulated critical geological and engineering data and achieved preliminary breakthroughs in deep geothermal drilling technology, thus laying a solid foundation for future large-scale development. This paper reviews representative international EGS cases, including Soultz in France, Landau and Insheim in Germany, as well as Utah FORGE, Project Red, and Cape Station in the United States. Lessons drawn from these advanced projects are integrated with Taiwan’s local resource advantages to promote interdisciplinary collaboration and sustained innovation in deep geothermal development.
  Looking forward, with ongoing policy support and technological maturation, EGS holds strong potential to become a baseload renewable energy source in Taiwan. CPC Corporation Taiwan will continue to deepen its research and demonstration efforts, aiming to establish a deep geothermal industry chain that balances economic viability and environmental sustainability, thereby driving energy transition and environmental protection. Strengthening technological integration, multi-stakeholder collaboration, and social communication will be key to realizing EGS commercialization, ultimately contributing to a stable, green, and sustainable energy future for Taiwan.

03
鋼化聯產的低碳轉型應用:從碳排放到碳資源
辛繼勤(Jil-Chyn Shin)
  鋼化聯產是結合鋼鐵與化工製程的創新低碳應用技術,透過回收高爐氣、轉爐氣與焦爐氣中的一氧化碳與氫氣,轉化為甲醇、醋酸等高值化學品,不僅可大幅降低碳排放、提升能源效率,更有助於降低對進口石化原料的依賴。中鋼副產氣年產量龐大,經回收與合成應用,預估可年產甲醇約66~84萬噸,或轉化為醋酸約125~157萬噸,創造碳固定與進口替代雙重效益,每年預估可減少約92~115萬噸CO₂e排放。在氫氣供應方面,目前台灣高度依賴進口天然氣與煉油副產氫,存在成本壓力與供應調度風險。本研究試圖以焦爐氣為原料,導入PSA(變壓吸附)系統進行氫氣回收,並搭配中油林園廠可提供的過剩氫氣(約20,000~30,000 Nm³/hr),以強化氫氣來源的在地穩定性。
  為驗證技術可行性,中鋼自2022年起與工研院合作推動實證模組建置,包含PSA與TSA(變溫吸附)氣體提純設備、電解製氫單元、CO₂ 捕捉與轉化模組,已成功將CO純度提升至99%、回收率達85%,並同步回收高純度CO₂作為後續甲醇或醋酸合成的碳源,完成甲醇合成反應之可行性驗證,展現鋼化聯產於實廠導入的潛力與擴展性。初步評估顯示,鋼化聯產具備良好的原料基礎、技術成熟度與產業整合潛力,配合現有鋼廠設施與區位條件,有望實現規模經濟與投資效益,是具高度可行性的低碳轉型方案,亦符合循環經濟與在地化學品發展方向。
   Steel–chemical integration is an innovative low-carbon pathway that couples steelmaking with downstream chemical processes. By recovering CO and H₂ from blast furnace gas, basic oxygen furnace gas, and coke oven gas (COG), these by-product gases can be converted into highvalue chemicals such as methanol and acetic acid. This approach can substantially reduce carbon emissions, improve energy efficiency, and lessen dependence on imported petrochemical feedstocks. Given the large annual volumes of by-product gases at CSC, recovery and synthesis applications are estimated to enable methanol production of approximately 0.66–0.84 million tons per year, or conversion to acetic acid of about 1.25–1.57 million tons per year, delivering both carbon fixation and import substitution benefits while reducing greenhouse gas emissions by an estimated 0.92–1.15 million tons of CO₂ equivalent annually. Regarding hydrogen supply, Taiwan currently relies heavily on imported natural gas and refinery by-product hydrogen, posing cost pressures and supply-balancing risks. This study proposes using coke oven gas as the primary feedstock for hydrogen recovery via pressure swing adsorption (PSA), supplemented by surplus hydrogen from CPC’s Lin yuan petrochemical plant (approximately 20,000–30,000 Nm³/hr) to enhance local supply reliability.
  To verify technical feasibility, CSC has collaborated with the Industrial Technology Research Institute since 2022 to deploy pilot modules—including PSA and temperature swing adsorption purification units, water electrolysis, and CO₂ capture and conversion systems. Results demonstrate CO purity up to 99% and recovery rates of 85%, alongside concurrent recovery of high-purity CO₂ as a carbon source for subsequent methanol or acetic acid synthesis. The methanol synthesis reaction has been validated at pilot scale, showcasing strong potential for fullscale plant implementation and future scaling. Overall, steel–chemical integration at CSC benefits from a robust feedstock base, mature technologies, and regional integration potential. When leveraged with existing plant infrastructure and locational advantages, the pathway is well positioned to achieve economies of scale and attractive investment returns, aligning with circular economy principles and the localization of chemical production.

04
節能減碳新設計對工廠操作之影響及適切性
何奇律(Chyi-Liuh Ho)張行(Hsing Chang)林信安(Lin Xinan)林建琛(Lin Jian-Chen)
  追求新設計是人類進步的根本及動力,通常是因為原來使用的狀態有一些不被滿足之處,或是有新的知識及需求被發表,因而衍生改變的念頭,新設計的產生過程,通常包括需求分析、市場研究、創意生成、原型模擬製作、最終設計定案幾個步驟來完成。每個新設計的產品及步驟都可能需要市場的回饋及多次迭代,直到設計達到預期的效果。這是一個動態和創造性的過程,需要設計者的創意、技術能力和與其他團隊成員的不斷修正。然而,就算是經過這樣嚴謹的過程及回饋,新設計雖可能展現其原來預期的功能,但也同時可能衍生一些不可預期的傷害,正所謂新設計的美麗與哀愁,也說明新設計的適切性對工廠操作的影響。本文討論蒸餾工場塔頂以高溫塔頂流加熱冷原油的節能設計,也討論為增加熱效率而導入板式換熱器的案例,更提出同樣以增進換熱效率的水塔蜂巢狀結構散水材實際運作的結果來說明新設計的適切性對其應有效率的影響,從材料的破損機制及考量節能可能的負面效應,謹慎的導入新設計,對工場的操作效益才能有明顯的經濟效益。
  The pursuit of new designs is fundamental to and the driving force behind human progress. This often comes from unmet needs in existing usage or the announcement of new knowledge, leading to the desire for change. The process of generating new designs typically involves needs analysis, market research, idea generation, prototyping, and final design. Each new product and process may require market feedback and multiple iterations until the design achieves the desired effect. This is a dynamic and creative process, requiring the designer's creativity, technical skills, and continuous refinement through collaboration with other team members. However, even after such a rigorous process and feedback, while a new design may demonstrate its intended functionality, it can also lead to unexpected negative effects. This illustrates the impact of a new design's appropriateness on factory operations need to be concerned. This article discusses energysaving designs for heating cold crude oil with high-temperature overhead flow at the top of a distillation tower. It also examines the case of introducing plate heat exchangers to increase thermal efficiency. Furthermore, actual operational results of honeycomb-shaped structure as water tower materials also have same opinions. By considering the material's failure mechanism and the potential negative effects of energy conservation, the cautious implementation of the new design can yield significant economic benefits to the plant's operational performance.

05
2025年下半年國際原油市場觀點
林繼平(Michael Lin)
  2025年上半年Brent原油期貨價格受美國擴大制裁俄國原油貿易與地緣政治因素影響,而有兩波高點,皆漲破80美元/桶;另因美國大幅提高進口關稅及OPEC+加快釋出產量,亦有兩波低點,均跌落60美元/桶。就基本面而言,國際原油市場恐將呈現供給大於需求狀態,且在中東緊張局勢趨緩、OPEC+增產及中美繼續貿易談判等前提之下,預計下半年大部分時段Brent原油價格將介於65~75美元/桶波動,平均價格約70美元/桶。
  In the first half of 2025, Brent crude oil price reached two peaks exceeding US$80 per barrel, which were driven by the United States imposing further sanctions on Russia and geopolitical factors. There were also two low points of oil price falling below US$60 per barrel because of the harmonized tariff policy of the U.S. government and the OPEC+ raising their oil outputs. Fundamentally, global oil supply could exceed demand in the second half of 2025. Furthermore, with tensions easing in the Middle East, the OPEC+ raising production, and the well development of US-China trade negotiations, I expect Brent crude oil price would fluctuate between US$65 and US$75 per barrel for most of the second half, with an average price of approximately US$70 per barrel.